Driver you got me curious as to how msft did hold 50 at the close. I had been watching it on a 30 minute chart, so I decided to take an up close look. What an education in bearish chart patterns! Classic examples and predictable results. What a beauty of a 2 day swing trade short that was. Looks to me like the shorts were so pissed, the shorted the crap out of it at Wednesday's close and were relentless in getting back every darn penny squeezed out of them back into their own pockets <g>
Anyway, msft did a perfect gap fill, Broke into the gap by a fraction but I think it qualifies as a perfect fill!
msft 15 minute chart
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So after doing this 15 minute chart of perfect bearflag continuation patterns, what I was posting about all day yesterday on the NDX (and people I'm sure thought I was nuts because the stocks and futs were moving up in the flag and it looked like a rally on the way), I looked at a one minute chart to see exactly what kind of action was going on at 50 that held it there. Buyers waiting and shorts with buy to cover bids I guess, knowing it was a short term support area. It put in a triple bottom there.
msft 1 minute chart from Friday's close
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But what was so interesting to see on the 1 min was there was the perfect example of an A-B-C correction which I had mentioned on the 15 min chart and was going to search for an example of. This one is a beautiful one, even though it failed at the close. A-B-C patterns require C to be a higher low, Although the wick of the candle was not higher, the body was so I think it still qualifies as a good example. But more of a higher low for C is preferable.
So as of the close, msft is testing an important area of support and triple bottom at the open Monday. Something that will be worth watching right at the open as it may be very telling for the day or even week on the NDX.
Whether this area holds as support will depend totally upon the huge test coming in next week on the NDX - the retest of the September lows which we started anew after Wednesday's ramp. It's no longer a question of will there be a retest, we are doing it NOW the question now is will it hold! September lows are only 53 pts away on the NDX, so this week will be dramatic. Either a huge reversal or a meltdown is in the cards.
Here's how close we are on the NDX. The compx is not as close to retesting the lows yet. COMPX is 173+ points away from testing the lows. The spread between the two indexes has been widening by the day lately...the bio and tech heavy NDX is breaking down at a much faster pace than the COMPX.
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Options expiration and a ton of economic numbers will make it even more of an exciting and volatile week <g> |
