stan - are you a bear?
I like to follow the Schaeffer's setup on monthlies.
10 and 20 months.
They call a market a bear when the 10 crosses the 20.
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
Cross of death was Jan 2001.
While 20 mos. average is in free fall, 10 mos. curve starts flattening as post-911 prices have challenged the average.
Too late?
Don't look for a daily chart with 100-200-300 averages. Averages and price are in a narrow range with an upside potential in your range: a killing bear rally if it plays out. It will, IMHO, the market is a bitch.
Bearon's cover story is helping for another rally. That helps explain why, even to this day, a lot of the market's smaller, pedestrian issues are holding up fairly well, while the former darlings continue to suffer. Indeed, more than half of the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index are higher this year despite the fact that the index itself has declined 7%. This punk overall performance can be blamed on the likes of GE, IBM, Microsoft and AOL Time Warner, beleaguered stocks that carry a heavy weight in the index due to their size.
It should be noted that even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been suffering, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, dominated by old-line companies, has held relatively steady around the 10,000 mark.
Well, we discussed past weekend over the spread between the large and micro caps, not with the same conclusions <vbg>.
Dow, alsways the same story with most funds playing the demand/supply game ...
Well, still searching what to do in the next months.
Real assets (you can't live without water and the sector is doing well, well of water <vbg>).
Hydrogen fuel cells? The administration is spending money. I still don't like administration involvement in free markets.
Nanotechnology and viral manufacturing? Yes, but still a bit early in the cycle.
Some cos. I am looking at for a shorter term Dollar weakness are the consumables (P&G, Gilette, Colgate,... )with sales outside the Dollar zone. |
