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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: ubetcha who wrote (13947)5/12/2002 3:32:54 PM
From: sea_urchin  Read Replies (2) of 81482
 
Terry > Are we waiting for the blue line to cross the red line, or the red line to cross the blue line.

The blue line is the moving average of the red line so, therefore, it is the slower one. Thus the red line will always cross the blue because it is more volatile. At the extremes (above 80 or below 20), the crossing of the red over the blue, at the top, or under the blue, at the bottom, shows a likely price direction change. This hasn't yet happened. What we notice at the moment is the curves have reached extreme values where reversals are likely but not inevitable.

Important to remember that stochastic analysis is a bad trading tool where the price is in a trend but is very good where the price moves in a trading-range.

Appropos the gold price, if it was in a trading range and not a trend, it could fall back to +/-$265. As I believe it is in a trend, a fall of $10, or so, would not be unreasonable before the price started upward again. Of course, I am not clairvoyant and none of this may happen.
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