Hi Barry; I should get the short interest data late tonight, and
it may reveal something. A large bearish spread was opened up
yesterday in OCT , about twice as many puts as calls.
I looked this morning and the premium was to high for me to even
think about it.
I'v still see this one as a short but if you read my last posts u
will know what worries me. Bar her getting a government hand out,
she should sink by OCT..but I think Jan is a safer bet.
Picking her top is just like trying to catch a falling knife when
bottom fishing.
For sure today any one thinking of shorting her would do better
buying calls, and then short sell the stock aginst the calls.
I'ts cheaper than buying puts. Thats a form of staddle..the calls
limit your risk to the upside, and you don't get picked off.
This recent jump should have her extended for the time being, she
will likley close just below the 70 mark next friday..but the puts
are too high and with to much spread right now. After ex date she
will likley dance back down to 65 before making 75.
Jim
Don't short Naked or with BUY STOPS, they see them and pick em off.,
and if naked and she pulls a real surprise you get cleaned out,
of course "buy stops" dont protect you in a after hours gap up,
not more than stop loses can protect your down side..they trigger
alright, at the next available price, after the market opens.
If you can't afford the insurance of calls, then it's best not to
short sell her, ( or any other ) unless you are shorting against
the box.
Jim
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