To Everyone:
IMO, this week is one of the most interesting weeks in a long, long time.
Not only is AMAT announcing their quarterly results (and most importantly, their outlook for the future) tomorrow, but the SEMI BtB data is scheduled for release after close of the markets on Thursday.
Both numbers could be quite exceptional. The threads have been full of information on "how much AMAT is going to beat estimates this quarter". Not so much earnings perhaps, but some of the bookings numbers put forth greatly (30 percent or so?) exceed initial estimates for the quarter.
What happens if the high bookings number is actually true? I doubt that only AMAT is seeing these better bookings numbers. How about several of the other semi-equips like NVLS, KLAC, KLIC, etc?
Bookings substantially exceeding previous guidance for AMAT (and therefore others as well) would imply a much higher BtB than presently expected. Last month, the BtB was 1.04. This month, billings probably won't increase nearly as much as bookings if previous history in 96 and 98 is any guide. The BtB may go to 1.1, or even higher. When this is announced on Thursday evening, on top of a very good AMAT bookings number and good guidance going forward, what happens?
Many, many people on the SI threads are predicting another steep downturn in the NASDAQ starting this week, or early next week lasting. A loss of 300 points, or more, from the peak achieved this week on the NASDAQ, is being predicted for the rest of May and June.
The market appears to be "bouncing along the bottom", but what is it going to do next. Will there be a rally caused by good bookings and BtB numbers, or will the market go into another 300 point decline for the next month or two?
Don |
