Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: orkrious who wrote (66589)	5/13/2002 9:55:06 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 99280

Sure there's a rebound, but orders are miniscule. Most of the current business is just maintenance. Any orders for new equipment are going to look huge when the denominator is small. But how robust is it going to be? Are they going to have 1.25 B/B sequentially for a year. I don't think so. You are right. The problem seems to be that investors are going to jump on the growth idea even if from a smaller base. They will see it is the start of the new up cycle. The key word is "cycle" and that can make investors very patient. I would note that UMC and TSM of Taiwan had been raising capex numbers for the year. So there are companies increasing spending out there. Who is going to think about whether this will last? That is what I would want to know. Unfortunately, too many may focus on the short term. However, if they don't raise guidance for next quarter, that could be enough to trigger a sell off in the stock as expectations are very high. btw--I wonder if new orders for AMAT slowed down enough in the past 1 month to possibly make them a little less bullish; that would be well after their stock split announcement.

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