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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3113)	5/13/2002 11:21:11 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95526

Hi Don, I think since Amat is late in the cycle to report - this is a plus.As the slow return to healthy markets the more it is delayed the better the orders will be. I think the short list of companies announcing Capex over 1 billion indicates a transition from leaders to laggards "also ordering" not yet occurring.I think it will occur but the laggards must be forced by lowering prices - squeezing the margins - if any out there. Perhaps as in Hynix's case,stopping the hemoraging is the driving force. I think the good news may well create a pop - much like today on anemic volume. As may and June progress doubters will bring a stain on the recovery.Second guessing - will undermine the "recovery". June will be hot steamy and second guessing - July 1-10 will be"get it over already" and then better earnings will come forth. A slow noninflationary recovery is exactly what the fed has engineered.It will happen but IT WILL TAKE TIME. The gogo daytraders/scalpers are still in denial - this market will revert back to the slower days. NOT BAD and in fact it is almost IDEAL for investors. The BIG question is how many investors are out there and what perecnt of them are better called speculators? A hard question to answer - but then investors don't really care. It is after all the speculators that are in a hurry.JMHO Bob

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