I've tried it, Paul. The problem is that the biggest moves seem to occur at the end of trends, so you can wind up easing yourself into a crash landing if you board (with longs) too early, or on the back of a rocket, if you short too early. In this volatile market, in which trends are short-lived, the final day or days of the trend can wind up being most of the trend. So the timing is tricky, to say the least.
Funny you should raise this issue now, because the question arises, is it too early to short now? I don't know. There are some signs that would make the trade questionable at this point. For example, the Naz CI's are still in the midpoint. And the S&P LT CI hasn't maxed out. But if AMAT has a bad report, anything could happen. On the other hand, if it has a good report, the fun could continue. |
