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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: yard_man who wrote (67215)5/14/2002 8:12:50 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
I see two potential methodologies of "denouement". The first is our balance of payments start and exceed about $40 B/per month followed by sharp decline in the dollar, and as result an interruption of the imported deflation. Another is the consumer simply getting so stretched out that consumption growth recedes and we go into a real recession, not what we had (which was only a "capex and profit recession", not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP). Both may probably occur simultaneously. Then after some "painful adjustments", the normal course of affairs will take hold, namely, excess capacity will be reigned in by market forces, pent up demand will start and accumulate and create the conditions for another growth spurt. We may have two or three recessions like that in the next 6-10 years, it takes time to bring balances back to such a large economy. (g).

Zeev
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