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Biotech / Medical : SCIO Scios Inc.

SCIO 0.01000

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Aug 19 5:00 PM EST

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To: Doc Bones who wrote (1433)	5/14/2002 10:46:46 PM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) of 1477

Doc Bones, Natrecor has definite benefits over other older drugs used for decompensated CHF. I understand from someone in the know that they believe SCIOS underpriced Natrecor thinking physicians would use the product for the entire duration of a typical CHF hospitalization, or about 5 days. In practice they might only use it for 48 hours or so. Natrecor has also not been shown to reduce rehospitalization rates and its effectiveness is actually most pronounced upon initiation of the infusion, rather than a longer term effect. Thus, for both of these reasons, inpatient revenues may be stunted in the near-term. Expect to see an early steep run up in Natrecor sales as physicians become more comfortable using this drug and older inotropic therapies are abandoned. BNP is a buzzword these days among cardiologists. You could make an argument that usage will be higher due to lower pricing, especially since Natrecor can be given in a telemetry setting rather than in an ICU, a significant cost savings to the hospital. A lower cost product may also spur outpatient infusions, but practices will need time to shift to acute IV therapies for outpatient CHF management. The outpatient market may prove to be a large one and chronic subcutaneous infusions may also boost sales beyond expectations. An acquaintance suggested that an arthritis drug if the pipeline, along with better than expected Natrecor sales has probably increased speculation in SCIOS's stock to the current level. At a market cap of $1.34 billion speculation is live and well in biotech. Aus

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