Ajtj, IMO it's statistically impossible to neatly fit every multi-week or multi-month market move into a 3-wave or 5-wave structure.
I had the same problem when trying to identify multi-week moves and divide, say, the last 2 years into distinct up or down multi-week trends. The main problem is that there are always moves of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, etc. magnitude and trying to classify them into neat distinct multi-week trends is quite arbitrary.
So, sometimes market trends fit our conceptual frameworks like e-waves or multi-week (month) trends quite well and sometimes they don't. That's why Donald Sew always says that the probability is no more than 63% that an expected market move will occur in a given T/A setup situation.
Of course, the fundamental guys always say it's just a random walk (i.e., prices move in a totally random manner) but then, they don't use T/A, so they wouldn't really know. LOL |
