MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: marginmike who wrote (12307)	5/14/2002 11:41:32 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) of 19219

I keep a spreadsheet updated with monthly S&P500 data from January 1970 forward. It shows the rate of return from January 1970 until end of April 2000 was 7.9%, and even less starting in most of 1970 through early 1973. I also noticed that April 2002 closed below April 1998, so we are now into a 4th year of no net market gain (not counting dividends), and that will likely persist at least into fall due to the rapid rise in early 98. The deep fall decline in 98 might result in a net 4-year gain for a month or two, but it will not likely persist. Unless we see a dramatic change it is likely the net decline period will extend out to 8 to 10 years or more, which is not bad if you're at or approaching your peak earnings potential. Not so comforting if you are past that point and your retirement funds have taken a serious hit. I don't have the data, but there were periods during the last 30 years when interest rates were high enough so that you might have done just as well with a steady diet of fixed interest alternatives to the equities market. Dan

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