* Pakistan: U.S. Using Local Tribe Against Al Qaeda
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Pakistan: U.S. Using Local Tribe Against Al Qaeda
Summary
Pakistani paramilitary troops and local tribesmen are arresting hundreds of suspected al Qaeda members in western Pakistan, local media are reporting. For Washington, this is the first significant operation inside Pakistan, but success depends on the cooperation of uncertain allies.
Analysis
Pakistani paramilitary troops have arrested hundreds of suspected al Qaeda members during an operation in the western tribal territory near the Afghan border, the Islamabad-based News Network International (NNI) reported. The operation is the first major action against potential al Qaeda members in Pakistan.
The United States appears to be following the "Afghan model" of warfighting in western Pakistan. U.S. and Pakistani troops are working with a local tribe, the Mahsuds, which is providing intelligence and manpower to assist in the arrests. But Washington may not have the same success with the Mahsuds as it did with Afghanistan's Northern Alliance.
The NNI alleged that "hundreds" of al Qaeda suspects were
arrested by more than 300 local paramilitary troops starting the morning of May 13. The paper reported that before the mission, FBI personnel supplied the troops with names, pictures and suspected locations of the al Qaeda fighters while U.S. aircraft and helicopters flew surveillance missions throughout the day.
Meanwhile, Pakistani troops took up positions in the mountains near the border in hope of cutting off escape routes into Afghanistan.
Last week, reports emerged that the Pakistani army had moved elite Special Services Group (SSG) commandos into the tribal areas, especially North Waziristan. Pakistani daily The Dawn reported that the troops were meant to complement regular army and paramilitary troops stationed in South Waziristan -- a semi- autonomous region governed under a code of tribal laws and customs -- near the town of Wana.
U.S. commandos were allegedly working with Pakistani troops, as well as cutting off likely border escape routes. All in all, there are reportedly 60,000 Pakistani army troops along the border with Afghanistan, though they likely are spread out over the 1,400-mile border rather than concentrated in the area in question.
Most of the activity May 13 took place near the city of Azam Warsak, which is near the border and in the southernmost tip of South Waziristan. Pakistan's tribal areas are home to fiercely independent tribes that were never fully conquered by the British, the Indians or the Pakistanis.
Some of these tribes are believed to be sheltering Taliban and al Qaeda members from Afghanistan, and most have been prickly about allowing Pakistani or American troops into their territory. However, Washington and Islamabad appear to have teamed up with a smaller tribe, the Mahsuds, The Dawn reported.
The semi-nomadic Mahsuds have robbed and pillaged their way
through South Waziristan for generations and were some of the British army's deadliest opponents. Internal feuds rage
constantly, but members band together against the more populous Wazir tribes that live farther north and control much of the region.
The Mahsuds also practice a slightly less stringent version of Islam than do the Waziris, who are suspected of supporting the Taliban and al Qaeda. Some Mahsud tribes were positioning themselves against al Qaeda as far back as February, when several councils decided to hand any suspects over to the United States.
Reports out of South Waziristan indicate that there has been little resistance among the population there to the presence of the U.S., Pakistani and Mahsud fighters so far -- somewhat surprising given the threats of violence from tribes in other areas. It is not clear whether this is due to fear of military retaliation, bribery (the Pakistani government recently promised $167 million in development aid for the region) or simply because the Americans and Pakistanis chose an easy target.
Washington seems to be using the Afghan model in western
Pakistan, with the Mahsuds taking the place of the Northern
Alliance. However, the comparison does not carry over perfectly, nor are similar results guaranteed.
First, the Pakistani government in effect has veto power over the entire operation. It controls the length, geographic scope and intensity of all operations in Pakistan. Second, the main difficulty in western Pakistan is simply trying to sift through tens of thousands of villagers to find dozens or hundreds of al Qaeda suspects.
The thing to watch is whether the United States switches
alliances midway through the campaign. In Afghanistan, Washington supported a secondary force (the Northern Alliance) in order to put pressure on the leadership of the country's main ethnic group (the Pushtuns) to turn against the Taliban. If that model holds, we can expect to see more tribal leaders side with the United States while it moves away from the Mahsuds. |
