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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51478)5/15/2002 11:21:36 AM
From: mt_mike  Read Replies (1) of 65232
 
JW, Longtime lurker I finally decided to pay my registration fee. You are absolutely right about tech. With the exception of a few small caps, it is not going anywhere for a few years. Yes, the world will continue to need technology, but these large caps are already pricing in any growth over the next few years. Are we supposed to be excited when AMAT posts .03 in earnings. How much were revenues down from a year ago. The topline is not growing. Laying people off and cutting R&D to make earnings does not signal any real growth will occur in the foreseeable future. HPQ said last night there is no pick up in 2002. Yes, tech is good but it will not lead us out of the abyss. I remember seeing a stat that waste removal companies were the leading sector in the 80s. Tech led the 90s. A new sector will lead this decade, and I like you, believe it will be natural resources.
As for the short term in the market we probably rally through earnings to suck in more sheep and beat up some retail shorts. Come June, earnings warnings start again and we head lower to take out the September lows. Fleck had a great article the other days about market bottoms. He is right, based on market sentiment we are nowhere close. In the next phase of the bear the debt finally catches up with us and the US Dollar gets taken to the woodshed.
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