Trader J, we have several possibilities here. One is that we are in the process of testing the gap at COMP 1770. The other is that we are testing the pivot high at 1832 COMP. Another possibility is that we are testing the NDX 1320-1325 pivot high / resistance. Another is that this is a correction off an oversold intermediate bottom, with the next shoe to drop down to below 1500 COMP (this is many of our views).
That said, this bear market has been very good at putting in lower highs. Remember 4200, 3600, 2900, 2328, 2098, 1947, and 1832? 1947 is a rock solid lower high, IMO.
If you apply my crash value model of valuation, a strong case can be made for COMP 880 before this is over with. 1050-1150 is also quite likely too.
As for events having an effect on the market, I'm of the opinion that markets eventually correct no matter what, and events can speed up or slow down the effect, but in the end the market is the master.
Anyway, I'm pretty wired into what's happening on the consumer end of things, and I'll tell you the 3rd and 4th quarters are going to suck for growth. The early statistics are not too reliable. Watch the 2001 GDP revision coming out in the end of July that will completely wipe out the 1.2% GDP growth we had last year.
Anyway, if you trade with tight stops, you have nothing to worry about, WCOM aside. |
