Just some wandering thoughts.
Looking ahead. There will likely be a financing after the start of P3 in HCC, which might be a P2/3. Probably late this year or 1q03. For reasons I no longer understand, new stock placements are well received during P3 because of FDA "buy-in".
The stock price at that point will be very important, because the spend rate here is only going up. What data will be examined at that point? Will it push it up to $20? It will primarily revolve around T67:
1. ASCO rr at low dose vs rr existing therapy. We know they have seen activity in HCC. No KO, but likely to be very reassuring in as much as the company has said it's going forward.
2. the current p2 bringing infusion time down. Expected to succeed.
3. the imminent p1 at 250mg/m2/3hrs. This will be very important. I suppose this holds some risk however.
4. p1/2 w/dox. This could be exciting.
5. 1m new HCC cases annually. Dox=5% rr. = receptive FDA. This will positively affect the investment calculus.
Assuming T64 is partnered or dead. CMV is who cares. T607 will be around with valuation contribution.
There will be the sizzle of the 2-3 2002 INDs, which co says are all specific, orally avail, IP protected, blockbusters, first in class (all but 1), and directed at novel targets. We know there is an obestiy and a lipid candidate in there somewhere. But they will will likely be in the clinic very late in 02 without much to talk about other than the target.
Will all of this get the financing done? Probably. Will it be done at $10 or $20? At higher prices, but probably closer to $10, unless asco is a socks-roll-up-and-down thing.
With the '02 burn of $75m burned by then, there will be a tech value of $400m at $8. It will have to raise a huge amount of money--certainly there is risk that the FDA can not quickly assimilate the new P1/2 data in time to start P3 as soon as the company would like. Still, could easily do it. But it looks to me as though there will likely be a significant financing not too far from these prices.
But after that, what is there plausibly, a double within a year to a $800m market cap? (Putting aside a change in sector sentiment, of course.)
Not a bad time to buy some, but 9 of the 10x is going to wait for nda approval, and the stock chart showing not much sympathy with upside spikes in IBB.
FWIW. Open fire. BTW, I own a little.
Wilder
Done with the Ts |
