There is only one God and X is its prophet....
D.V Lindley: Probability is the only satisfactory description of uncertainty. The probability approach to the treatment of uncertainty in artificial intelligence and expert systems, Statistical Science.
MechanicalMethod, Are you on the sly challenging the substance of the Eddy Blinker algorithm? I hope so. Otherwise I would feel like a sorry waste of time. Trying to be a salesman for the proposed El Dorado Banking Inc.
Indirect Confirmation BY
cs.unc.edu
of Blinker theory on the Subject of Probability.
Brought to Blinkers attention after he went through a car load of mathematicians declaring him in need of instant vacation for stating that financial neural networks-predicting tomorrows price changes of indices or equities can not improve profitable strike outs from investors, traders, speculators and gamblers unless the very inputs to the network are " doctored with ". To reflect the probability that Financial Media Reports about todays price movements of indices/equities are false and misleading the public. Creating false investment, trading, speculating decisions. Too many times.
Who, while in 1973 holding the chair for Mathematical System Theory at the ETH (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)engaged in a study about
Probability in the Real World as a system Attribute EWI Quarterly Volume 9 (3) 1996 pp. 181 -204
His study concluded
" Whatever (intuition, formalized, abstract)probability might be, and however the axioms might be phrased to hide the underlying assumptions , physical probability has meaning only in relation to specific systems. It is NOT a universal concept."
" This does not mean that mainstream applications of probability -which are based in finding conditions under which happenings in the real world are believed to mimic the state of affairs in the abstract world -should be abandoned. It does mean that we should take a new look at all the probabilistic and statistical analysis to see what they really amount to in the real world. "
So lets see shall we?
I used my credit card and $1000 to start the Month of May to find out in real world terms if I can make enough to pay my rent, bills, smoke, eat and drink and end up with a profit on the last day of the month. Of course I am handicapped vi sa vi a normal trader using a broker, because my odds and stock, indices selection is very, very limited and besides other punter unfriendly restrictions such as not being able to trade the first 1/2 hour of the session, I am confident that I will achieve a good result. Based strictly on the numbers appearing on my WEB based displays. BTW. In my last post I did not mean SI babble but Media babble.
From the profits I made there,
dow-jones.via.t-online.de
I send back to my credit card US2000.
Here is the present state of affairs. dow-jones.via.t-online.de
I missed out on my last bet and closed out two long positions on the DJIA today with a small loss for tactical reasons. (Tomorrows first 1/2 hour).
Regards,
ED |
