hi qveau,
nice, thoughtful post, as usual. just a comment on your opening point...
My point is a simple one, and that is that its difficult to discern any greater objectivity among the QCOM bears than is seen from the QCOM bulls
there is probably some truth to this. just because bulls have been wrong on some issues (like the direction of the stock price) doesn't mean bears can't be wrong as well. which is one of the reasons i try to retain some mental flexibility (i.e., an openness to at least the possibility of switching from one camp to the next, which requires considering the possibility that one's own current assessment is wrong).
but i think in many cases, the bulls' objectivity may be a bit biased due to their personal interest in the stock's rise. i think many people could not stand to think that QCOM is, for example, fairly valued at 25 or 30. whereas somebody who does not currently have a (large) financial stake may be more willing to entertain such possibilities.
as one who has been more or less "bearish" here the past couple of years (and having been a non-owner of QCOM for most of that period), i feel i have been free of the "ownership bias" that may have affected some longs. which is not to say i have not had other biases, such as the "pride bias", wherein one wants pride of place or whatever for seeing an outcome match one's opinion. but for me, in any case, pride goeth a heckuva lot sooner than my pocketbook. which is to say i am more than willing to change my opinion if i see a financial benefit (in going long, for example).
so i think bears (who do not have a financial interest in being bearish) can perhaps be more objective than those bulls who simply cannot bear to think (given the financial consequences) that they are wrong.
i consider myself to be now a bit more bullish than i was in the past (thanks, of course, to the fall in the stock price), although i guess i am still bearish as well. which is why i have a bullish/bearish position in the stock (the buy-write i mentioned). |
