Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.68

+1.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (63830)	5/16/2002 3:19:40 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

they came out with unexpected good news (on bookings), and the stock doesn't go up Unexpected? Stock hasn't gone up? Rumors of strong bookings began circulating as early as last weekend and AMAT is up over 15% on the week. I don't think that I was the only person that bought on the rumor. Most who did, and many who didn't, sold on the news. 2 downgrades based on valuation. There are 3 reasons I have not taken profits yet on my Monday buy at 25.31: (1) There is still good news to come with surprisingly high BTB after the close; (2) The account that I have the shares in does not permit AH trading and most of the pop was AH Tuesday. (3) In a recovery, time is on the side of the bulls. There may be a reaction allowing you to buy at 22.5. There may not be. But the direction is UP. The bottom is in. Bookings are picking up as consumers buy $99 DVDs, digital cameras and associated memory, and billions of people in Asia buy their first PCs as prices finally reach levels they can afford. By the time IT spending shows good signs of recovery here, a signal many are looking for, AMAT will probably be at 45. Valuation is an issue because of the quality of earnings and management in a market that is finally learning the value of quality. This is not irrational exuberance. Good things usually cost more. I think it quite likely that with profit taking out of the way AMAT could be probing 30 next week. Sam

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