Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (68137)	5/16/2002 6:17:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 99280

It almost seems to me that they have targeted the index biggies. CSCO MSFT INTC + the inevitable semi-equip stocks Not sure what % of the index that is but I bet it is hefty. With 100K plus Calls at QQQ 33 if they can force this above 33 we can get a mammoth delta hedging (long) rally tomorrow. It seems that the option sellers prevented it yesterday with that late selling at 2:22 but no attempts today (of course today we did not get above QQQ 33. I get the feeling we are going to close at the high end of Max Pain (32.5+) instead of doing a reversal like we have done for 5 months in a row during expiry week. In spite of poor technicals(new highs etc) it "seems" possible that the street has been buying the dip hand over fist (as Ron Dior has suggested), especially CSCO. Strength on that BS news is simply amazing to me. If they have been buying the dip then "they" have to have every intention of unloading all the inventory at higher prices, which to me implies that we are near term going up. This is the first time in 6 months we have not sunk on thursday and Friday of expiry week, with many stocks above max pain (which is another indication of buying as opposed to a Max Pain ramp job just to get us there). In fact it almost seems that QQQ 33 calls is the only thing preventing this market from exploding up. If (big IF of course) we rally here, this puts the cabash to a June crash theory IMO, with all the June QQQ puts building up. There does not seem to be enough time for a rally as well as a 300+ drop, assuming of course one believes my theory that we close at Max pain again in June with all those QQQ puts (I know you do not subscribe to that theory but 6 months in a row here we are at max pain expiry week, this time slightly ABOVE it). If we are headed down near term, one would at least think we would close at the lower end of the Max Pain range, or even below it as we have done the past 5 months. I am seriously considering the possibility that we ALREADY had the April/May crash I was calling for, that there was no Spring rally (unless one considers that it started JUST NOW with CSCO BS news, followed with a short headfake down after the news), and that there is going to be no "June Swoon" either. Everybody seems to have hopped onto the May/June decline theory. What if we already had it? We sank for almost 2 months from March top to May bottom. Why can't we rally 1.5 months in May and June? Looks more and more to me that summer crash is in July as opposed to June and that the May bottom already took place. M

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