RtS,
I mostly agree with your observations but would add the old saw that bull markets climb a wall of worry. Everyone is worried these days... about terrorism, the economy, the mideast, Iraq, the market, end user demand, double dip, limited visibility, the dollar, deficits, their 201k...
It's no surprise they are seemingly in a mood to do nothing but stay home, rent videos from Blockbuster (+50%) and Hollywood Entertainment (+100%) keep their old clunker going buying parts from Autozone (+200%), and maybe splurge on an imported beer. The only thing they will continue to spend big money on other than their house (homebuilders + 100%) is their health and health insurance premium (WLP + 80%) and their medical tests from DGX and LH (+1000%). The last thing they want is another tech stock, because that is the source of their most recent pain.
The way we humans are wired is that we do not like to buy until we are comforted by the sight of others like us behaving in a similar fashion. Although we know Jim Morgan and Cary are probably right when they say they can see AMAT doing $20 billion in sales a year sometime down the road, we seem not to want to travel down that road alone because we can not see its end.
Instead of a bear market, I think we are in a tough stockpickers bull market, where great stocks may go up 30%/ yr and lousy stocks go belly up. How can we ask for anything more with all this worry around?
Sam |
