I have re-read a few of the recent posts regarding Arm. I would like to try and clarify a confusing point that I noticed in some of them. I am pretty tired so I may write gibbaresh but here goes.
Most posters refer to Arm as being in the embedded processor business (the market for the processors that go into PDA's, cell phone and Java Joy machines). Although this is true it is not what is exciting about Arm. Arm is in the "embedded processor core IP" business. This is an entirely different beast, IMO.
The embedded processor market, as Tinker pointed out, is mature. I believe that "embedded processor core IP" is a disruptive technology which is changing the economics of the embedded processor business.
Here is an article form IEEE Spectrum co-authored by Clayton Christensen that explains some of the dynamics underlying the disruption of the processor.
It is a good starting place although he only quickly hints at some of the bigger issues. I will hunt down some more reading on what is happening in the processor and IC market that suggest a disruption is well underway.
Paul
spectrum.ieee.org
The Future of the Microprocessor Business
Customization and speed-to-market will drive the industry from the bottom up
Michael J. Bass, Hewlett-Packard Co. & Clayton M. Christensen, Harvard Business School
In a century in which technology left few aspects of life unchanged in some countries, the microprocessor may have been the most transformative of all. In three decades it has worked itself into our lives with a scope and depth that would have been impossible to imagine during its early development.
If you live in a developed country, chances are good that your household can boast of more than a hundred microprocessors scattered throughout its vehicles, appliances, entertainment systems, cameras, wireless devices, personal digital assistants, and toys. Your car alone probably has at least 40 or 50 microprocessors. And it is a good bet that your livelihood, and perhaps your leisure pursuits, require you to frequently use a PC, a product that owes as much to the microprocessor as the automobile owes to the internal combustion engine.
Throughout most of its history, the microprocessor business has followed a consistent pattern. Companies such as Intel, Motorola, Advanced Micro Devices, IBM, Sun Microsystems, and Hewlett-Packard spend billions of dollars each year and compete intensely to produce the most powerful processors, which handle data in 32- or 64-bit increments. The astounding complexity and densities of transistors on these ICs—now surpassing 200 million transistors on a 1-cm2 die—confer great technical prestige on these companies. The chips are used in PCs, workstations, and other systems that, for the most part, have been lucrative, high-volume markets. |
