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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: john722 who wrote (68480)5/17/2002 12:10:46 AM
From: paul_philp  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
The semiconductor industry is a heavily cyclical industry. You will always find that the bookings and billings numbers at the start of a cyclical upturn are lower than a time closer to the top of the cycle. It is the nature of cyclicals. Given the extremes of the previous cycle we would expect the comparissons to show a large drop. This is not the first extreme cycle in the history of semiconductors. In the other cycles it took 2 more cycles after the extreme to pass the extreme cycle top. If this pattern holds the current cycle will fall short of the previous cyle and we won't pass it until 2005 - 2006. However, there is not denying that all the industry numbers are consistent with a cyclical upturn.

However, end product demand is another issue altogether.

Paul
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