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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Earlie who wrote (68509)5/17/2002 9:07:28 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Come on, Early, you don't play that "looking back" PE thing. The market will try and estimate the peak earnings on this cycle, for AMAT, I have no more than $1.75 on a annual basis (and that is rich) and thus my peak for AMAT on this cycle is $35/share. Yet, short term, I think we are pretty close to a local top here and I agree with you about the next two weeks seeing a dearth in good news, and actual bad news creeping in. I added to that list of potential shorts QCOM just under $32 (and suggest that those that got on have a hard stop at $34.75 or so) and VTSS at $6.65 (stop should be at $7.5). By this time next month, the outsized BTB of 1.20 (which was not a surprise) will drop down (temporarily IMTO) to the 1.12/1.15, and send shivers in the sector, IMTO, but that is a good month away. These shivers might create the conditions for a real and solid advance from what I expect to see as late June lows under 1500.

Zeev
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