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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: gdichaz who wrote (51441)	5/17/2002 2:05:11 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Chaz, I think relationship is the issue. I would not ever suggest ignoring IBM in the distributed application platform battle. I would only suggest that IBM is not a candidate to be the Gorilla in this market. IBM Global Services competes with the system integrators, the process consultants and the datacentre outsourcers. BEA has only a miniscule services offering in comparison. IBM's hardware divisions compete with all the other hardware platforms selling into the datacentre. Would you trust IBM to keep their software up-to-date and optimized for your Sun infrastructure. IBM competes with the database vendors. Is Oracle going to build an high performance integration between WebSphere and their database. I don't think they will. Right now about 65% - 70% of deals are smaller projects in which the customer will do most of the development work. While this is the case, BEA and IBM have similar offerings and are beat each others brains out. Once the projects move up in scale and become infrastrcture projects then the limitations of the IBM value chain will hurt them because the IBM offering will not scale to support every future compenent a customer might need in the future. Right now BEA is the leading Gorilla candidate by elimination - IBM, Sun and Oracle all have to much conflict to build a full value chain. There is a risk that BEA will misexecute during the trench warfare with IBM. Even in that case IBM will not be a Gorilla candidate, for all the same reasons. In the unlikely case that BEA has a unscheduled water landing then I think Microsoft would make a strong effort to establish themselves as the gorilla. Their track record in the datacentre is terrible and they will not have a 64-bit operating system out for 2 years so they are no threat to BEA right now. Paul

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