> But you don't see the gold carry trade or the massive hedging of gold producers as a significant factor
Factor, yes, but one of many.
> By your own numbers the level of production has remained flat for the last six years
Sorry, but my numbers (GFMS) are:
1995 - 2250
1996 - 2328
1997 - 2472
1998 - 2555
1999 - 2569
2000 - 2573
2001 - 2604mt
That is UP every year, and we are running 15.7% over 1995
I use 1995 a my baseline because that's when gold hit $400 and millions were invested in exploration.
The "natural deficit", which I consider total demand minus primary mine production minus scrap has been as high as 1000mt in that period, but mostly closer to 500-600mt, and has gone all the way down to 173mt in 2001 due to weak demand.
> gold carry trade? THat that didn't exist? OR that it was over estimated?
Exists, probably corrected estimated by Veneroso, was an important factor in the 1995-1999 timeframe, less so post Washington agreement, less so now that the "deficit gap" is down to 173mt and we need miners to cover hedges to suck up the continues central bank sales. |
