Haim:
I am no expert, but I view this economic recovery thing as total statistical nonsense. It may be showing up in government stats, but it isn't showing up in broad-based end-of-chain sales (except where there is "no-money-down", no-payments-'till-2003" type of promotions, which is just stealing sales from follow-on quarters). The rebound is also not showing up in distribution pipelines nor in corporate purchases or cap. ex. It is also not showing up in employment where the lay-offs continue without let-up. In tech land, they can't even spell "rebound" as sales are just plain ugly.
It is true that Government expenditures are rising, but it is also true that government revenues are falling well short of expectations (another sure sign of waning economic activity) and this seems to be leading to engorged deficits and state governments that can't even provide their respective citizens with the tax refunds they are legitimately owed.
Yes, the residential real estate bubble continues unabated, but its normal soul mates, industrial and commercial real estate development are conspicuous by their absence. Industrial output continues to sag badly and goods transportation numbers (trucking, shipping, air cargo) just "suck". I will believe there is a "rebound" in progress whan I see it on the roads, in the malls and in the "help wanted" ads.
With respect to new investment, I cannot agree with your supposition. When huge quantities of capital are sent to "money heaven", it takes an inordinate amount of time to rebuild it. We are already well into a period where junior companies, even the good ones, are languishing as a result of not being able to raise capital, and this will likely get worse over the next few years. I really worry about this.
And yes, I could use a couple of new shirts. (g)
Best, Earlie |
