Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (19131)	5/19/2002 11:21:07 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Japan has a very big, very slow problem -- aging population, not much immigration. Until the population reaches equilibrium, too many old people being supported by too few young people. Same with Europe, I think. I understand that Japan is predicted to experience the brunt of the problem in only 2 or 3 more years. US will delay the problem somewhat because we have more immigration, but it would help if we could be picky about our immigrants and only allow in those who produce more than they consume. When everyone retires at once, they will start draining their 401K stock accounts at once. Any predictions vis a vis Dow 36,000 needs to factor this in. OTOH, as the kids graduate from college we'll be socking away retirement money even faster, for a while. Between 1920 and 1930, the US population actually declined by 10% due to immigration restrictions. This no doubt put population pressure on Europe which had become accustomed to using the US as a safety valve for its population. The economic effect of population changes are very slow and hard to measure but they are real. China's one child policy will produce an even worse old/young problem, not sure when they'll be feeling it.

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