VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (51798)	5/20/2002 8:00:26 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 65232

I predict Arab OPEC nations will demand GOLD for OIL they will soon refuse USdollars this will push our markets down later this year as we pressure Arab nations, they will surely respond. Many months ago, Iraq demanded Euros for oil. Others Arab nations may do something similar. The only difference may be that they get paid in Dollars but imediately convert to other currencies...the end result is the same. They simply can't take the chance of going against the US publically but can achieve the same results through currency trades. Given how so many accounts are being frozen of organizations possibly linked to terrorism, it would not be surprising to see many wealthy Arabs put their wealth elsewhere. Better to risk losing some money (by putting it in Yen/Euros) instead of having it all disappear if the US government can find any sort of link to terrorism. The point is that these individuals may not really be aware of how their "donations" are being used but risk having funds frozen for an indefinite period of time if the US government decides to investigate. Most Arabs probably see any Palestinian charity as a charity but the US obvious is very skeptical. That should be enough to make them nervous about having assets in the US. For these reasons, the transfer of wealth out of the US is inevitable and is probably already happening. Of course there may be ways around it by buying US dollars while having their accounts shifted to Europe. The other point is that they may just be suspicious of the US government...possibly even making up some stories of conspiracies to steal Arab wealth. Based upon a lot of news stories from the middle east in the past few months, such an idea would seem very possible to them. Overall, the impact has to be negative for the dollar and positive for Gold. Just don't know what kinds of dollar amounts we are talking about. Of course if the dollar weakens a bit more, psychology may kick in. All those Asian and emerging market central banks that loaded up on US dollars in the 1990s are probably nervous right about now. I bet even the Japanese central bank is trying to cash in their dollars while their government officials assist them by talking down the YEN...now that is probably the real conspiracy out there.<g> jmho

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