Bobby,
checkout the Tim Ord copy/paste.
Finger likin good.
Did u score with brooke yet?? -g- Just kidding...
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What to expect now. May 20, 2002
There are several things going on right now. The short-term picture
appears bearish. The "5 day ARMS" on the NYSE closed Friday at 4.26 and in
bearish territory. The "Percent Volume" indicator closed Friday at .61 and
in bearish territory. A bearish candlestick pattern called a "Shooting
Star" appeared on May 15 and the re-test on lighter volume came Friday,
confirming the bearish set-up. Therefore, the short-term trend appears to
have topped. We watch the "21 day average ARMS" for intermediate term
signals. When the "21 day average ARMS" exceeds 1.40, the S&P is at an
intermediate term low. On May 7, the "21 day average ARMS" exceeded 1.40.
The last three times this indicator got this low came on April 3, 2001
(which lead to a 200 S&P point rally); September 1, 2001 (early on bullish
signal but had good rally after the 9/11/01 low), and February 7, 2002
(which lead to a 100 S&P point rally. Therefore, after the next low is
seen on the S&P, an intermediate term rally may begin. We are looking for
the May 7 low near the 1045 level to be tested and where the next
intermediate term rally may begin. We are short the SPX at 1091.07.
We had resistance on the NDX between 1310 to 1340 area on the market did
back off from this level. Friday the "5 day ARMS" closed at 3.17 and in
bearish territory. However, both the "Summation Indexes" on the NDX and
Nasdaq were pointing up and we did not like to trade short when the
"Summation Index" is pointing up. Therefore, we did not "Sell Short" the
NDX. There still may be a pull back here, but we don't see an extended
move down from here, only a possible test of the May 7 low. The reason is
that the "55 day average ARMS" is signaling the Nasdaq is at an
intermediate term low. When the "55 day average ARMS" reaches 1.70 (hit
there on May 7), the market is building an intermediate term low. The last
time the "55 average day ARMS" closed over 1.70 came on April 3, 2001 and
lead to 700 point NDX rally soon after. Flat for the moment.
The Weekly and months charts on the XAU remain bullish. The monthly charts
imply Gold is in a powerful "wave 3" up in Elliott Wave terms. The "Rydex
Precious metal Fund" assets have reached into the extreme overbought area
at the 100 level on the recent rally. Therefore, the XAU may have a time
out to the upside for a short while. There are cycles for a turn in mid
July. There may be a pull back into that time frame. We still like
"Drooy" for the longer term (we bought it at 1.04). We like HL for the
longer term (we bought it at 1.06 and 1.40). We like ASA for longer term
(the previous support is at 23). We are adding a new gold stock that we
think have good potential for the long term and that is "BGO". We bought
this stock on May 3 at .89.
email: timord@radiks.net
visit my website at www.marketweb.com/ord
Tim Ord, The Ord Oracle
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, NE 68461
(402) 486- 0362 |
