Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (19208)	5/21/2002 8:35:12 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) of 74559

>>On AC's predictions, I expect it to be as before ... (a) The economy is fine for the next 10 years until demographics kick in the inevitable<< Unfortunately, Jay, it's more like 7 years, perhaps as little as 6 or as much as 8. Any and all structural economic problems will be glossed over and ignored in the meantime. The US stock market indices are basing in preparation for a multi-year move to ridiculous and unthinkable new highs, driven (partly) by the sharp recovery in corporate earnings that is now under way. The goldbugs had a good year in 2001, but they have been right for the wrong reasons. There is no secular bull in gold, just another short term rush by the lemmings into what appears to be hot. The apparent momentum in gold will completely evaporate by the fourth quarter. The end-game - at least for anyone in their 40s now - is the multi-year economic downturn, a la Japan, that will hit the US at the end of this decade. This may even prove to be the long-forecasted depression, severe enough to warm the cockles of the most dessicated doomster's heart. I trust you will enjoy it.

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