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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 120.00+2.0%Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cage Rattler who wrote (85631)5/21/2002 6:16:03 PM
From: E. Charters  Read Replies (2) of 116822
 
Its all very simple. Jean Baptiste Fourier splained it in his theory of natural boundary phenomona for Napoleon. It has been the Rosetta stone of engineers ever since. What you do is figure everything is one big sine wave made up of all kinds of little bitty sine waves all added up on top of one another. Their phases collide in seemingly random ways and the result is a chaotic wave or non-predictable looking wave. All you got to do is pick the big wave apart into a lot of little sine waves again. Then you project them ahead and add them up again. Or you could figure out what all the little sine waves probably are, add them up till they look like your big wave you figure they are the result of and project them ahead by non linear regression and fudge them until your macro wave is a predictor. One problem is the interdependence of the related cycles. A suggestion might be to try cycles at random until you get one that looks like some graph of historic cycles. that is called macro wavelet by chance theory. Another approach might be to try Pascals triangle. Series are given by the difference between differences until the differences are unitary. Then the differences can be projected ahead. The right fudge factor needs to be thrown in at the right place.

Let me know how it works out. I want 50% of the action.

EC<:-}
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