Democracy for Palestine
An unexpected moment of opportunity.
Wednesday, May 22, 2002 12:01 a.m.
Just when all seemed hopeless, history has afforded the Bush Administration one of those rare, unexpected moments of opportunity.
We refer to the unprecedented outpouring of public discontent in Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority over the past week. Just a fortnight ago the conventional wisdom was that Israel's lengthy West Bank incursion had only strengthened Mr. Arafat by forcing Palestinians to rally behind their leader; President Bush would be mired in an ever-worsening Israeli-Palestinian crisis as he tried to build a coalition against Iraq.
But then a funny thing happened on the way to Baghdad. As Mr. Arafat ventured out into the rubble left by retreating Israeli troops last week, he was met by catcalls. "We're so sick of seeing this V sign," said Omar Karsou, who is launching a pro-democracy movement. "Where will it end?" Mr. Arafat even canceled a visit to heroic "Jeningrad" for fear of public reaction.
Then last Wednesday Mr. Arafat actually confessed to unspecified "mistakes," and promised reform of his government and new elections. The Palestinian Legislative Council leapt at the opportunity, issuing a detailed set of reform recommendations. And although Mr. Arafat has yet to set a date for those elections, the first challenger has already presented himself. He is Abdel Sattar Qassem, a 53-year-old American-educated political scientist who had been jailed by Mr. Arafat for 14 months. In 1996 Mr. Arafat allowed himself to be challenged only by a 73-year-old woman.
A new poll shows Mr. Arafat's popularity rating at a mere 35%, down from over 70% six years ago. Ninety-one percent of Palestinians say they favor "fundamental changes," while 48% favor (and 43% oppose) giving most powers to a prime minister and making Mr. Arafat's presidency a ceremonial post.
This is remarkable. Although the number of "collaborators" murdered by Mr. Arafat's Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade has skyrocketed in recent months, people have suddenly lost their fear of challenging the regime in public. Instead of pushing Palestinians behind their leader, Israel's invasion has forced them to start coming to terms with what that leader has done.
For the Bush Administration, one temptation will be to see such "instability" as a threat and to stick with Mr. Arafat as the devil it knows. Mr. Qassem has said some sympathetic things about Hamas, after all. Or if the Administration has finally realized that Mr. Arafat can never deliver peace, it may be tempted to go for a handpicked replacement like West Bank security chief Jibril Rajoub or Gaza's Mohammed Dahlan.
But this would only perpetuate the root Palestinian problem. A regime that has no legitimacy beyond the struggle against Israel can never effectively crack down on those claiming to wage that same struggle. In retrospect, it should have been no surprise at all that Mr. Arafat joined in a suicide-bombing bidding war with Hamas and Islamic Jihad rather than deciding to confront them.
Although no Arab regime can be called truly democratic, it's instructive that the most dictatorial--Syria, Iraq and Libya--have been the most consistently hostile to Israel. Comparatively free and representative Jordan and Egypt have been able to forge at least a cold peace.
Rather than keep Mr. Arafat in power or engineer his succession, the U.S. opportunity now is to press him hard and publicly to hold the freest and fairest elections possible. We have no illusions that Mr. Arafat will allow a perfect contest. But Palestinians, long spectators of Israel's freewheeling democracy, may finally be ready to demand a government that delivers results.
And who knows, we just might discover that most of them care more about jobs, education and trash collection than they do about blowing up Israelis. Even in the worst case, Palestinians will be constructively preoccupied while the U.S. replaces the regime in Iraq, which may be the external shock necessary to bring reform to the wider region.
The Bush Administration has been sending mixed signals in recent months, dismissing Mr. Arafat as untrustworthy only to resurrect him later. Lately it's been talking about "reform" of the Palestinian Authority, but that will mean little if it doesn't include a process for creating more than another Arab dictatorship. Now's the time to promote democracy in Palestine. |
