Naz stuck also because of threat of higher shorterm rates
GreenMan cannot raise rates
when the market does his job on the short end, he must follow
and then interest rate debt swaps on massive scale will smother corporate earnings
also, higher rates will create greater weight on stock prices due to valuation issues
and all the while, the US$ interest rate is uncompetitive versus other majors now
so the dollar is encouraged to decline, hurting US stocks from unfavorable currency market cash flow
I disagree on Naz floor
this autumn, I expect Naz to go below 1500
probably like 1100-1200
Ciena today offered poor future guidance
Cisco guidance was pure bullshit, as usual
IBM is cutting down its forecasts for next year
Oracle is seeing lethargic demand
Microsoft cannot offer positive outlook
software guidance is generally poor
PC sales are slowing badly, and HP/Compaq merger is white flag
telecom debts still needs a couple years to resolve
trading volume is slipping, even on good days
the downchannel is powerful for the Naz the last several months
layoffs will be the only way out for corporations to maintain some semblance of positive cash flow
I believe they are slowly giving up the ghost of recovery
meanwhile, their debt burdens are near crippling
as layoffs continue to mount, consumer spending will peter
and with sliding dollar, IPO market has disappeared
we will see
the Naz PE ratios will catch up its stocks individually
they are at least 2x too high now
as future earnings fade in the forecasts, school is out
meanwhile the hedonic CPI index is now joined by hedonic jobless measures
"they" decided to exclude airline and transportation layoffs from the measure
it was too volatile, and too high, too depressing on the measure
the govt has become a grand deceiver
the media has become a grand cheerleader and censor
the unspoken story is the unstable faulty foundation for the world currency system and its fractional banking reserve system
/ jim |
