SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 151.94+1.1%3:59 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Cary Chubin who wrote (2330)7/12/1997 7:16:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 10921
 
Cary,

Carl Johnson is hedging, as usual. Nobody expects a 1993-5 type boom where companies grew 70-100% per year from a base that was the historical high for most. The semi-equip industry is likely to begin its recovery from the downturn with large increases in year to year sales and even larger % increase in earnings. Some of these numbers will approach the 1993-5 numbers, but it will not be a "boom" because it will be built on the downturn base and it will probably last only about one year. After this "boom" interval of the recovery, the more orderly part of the recovery will follow with 20-30% year over year increases. The current prices reflect a return to pre-downturn levels and then a number of years (3-5) of orderly recovery. The model for this scenario is AMAT which has forecast that it will recover to pre-downturn levels in '97 and will grow 30-35% a year to $10-15B annual revenues by "early next century".

Current prices reflect the improved prospects for semi-equip business inflated by the general "irrational exhuberance" that pervades this market. A retracement will likely be tied to a general market decline. The chances of the semi-equip industry disappointing investors declined significantly when LRCX's Bagley forecast $4.00 for fiscal '99 which starts a year from now. LRCX has joined AMAT in putting a quantitative spin on the recovery. Investors will be satisfied by guidance that supports the AMAT/LRCX forecasts and will overlook current numbers as long as they don't make the guidance look specious.

Cary
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News