Eric:
... Wireless technology supplier Qualcomm Inc. on Wednesday said it expects to see 170 million users of mobile phones based on its technology by the end of the year, led by growth in Korea, Japan and the United States...
...Jacobs said the company's confidence was based on its forecast that it could sell the underlying technology and resulting royalties used to build between 80 million and 85 million of its next-generation CDMA2000 1X phones during the full calendar-year 2002...
Those two statements seem a bit at odds to me. According to the CDG data, CDMA worldwide subs went from 111.351 million at 12/31/01 to 120.218 million at 3/31/02, an increase of only 8.867 million. To get to 170 million by year end would require an average sub add of around 16.6 million per quarter, somewhat optimistic IMO since sub adds in 1999, 2000 and 2001 were 27.1, 30.3 and 31.0 million respectively for the full year.
Moreover, if Qualcomm does in fact expect 170 million users by year end, why the estimate of only 80-85 million handsets sales as continuing full year guidance? 170 million subs requires 59 million "new" handsets, leaving only 21-26 million "replacement" handsets, or 19%-23% of the 111 million existing users as of 1/1/02. That's way below the historical handset replacement rate of around 50%-55%, and hard to accept given that 1x upgrades are in full swing in Korea, Japan and the US.
I have to believe that the 170 million year end user number is misquoted or excessive optimism on Qualcomm's part. either that or the market for "used" CDMA handsets is expected to blossom (<g>). Anyone hear anything different than this 170 million number?
David T. |
