Jeff, when I looked at this in early April, I imagined a drop into the end of Dec, a sharp rally in January on seasonal strength, a drop into March, April Rally, and a drop into the ultimate low in the fall.
Sound familiar? That should also dovetail with the economic situation pretty decently.
The one problem with all of this is the mid-term election this year. Here's the S&P lows during mid-term elections.
1970 Low - May 26
1974 Low - Oct. 4
1978 Low - March 1
1982 Low - Aug 9, 12
1986 Low - Jan. 23
1990 Low - Oct. 11
1994 Low - April 4
1998 Low - Jan. 12
The 1970-1982 dates were during a bear, so maybe those are the more significant ones. We've got 2-lows in Oct., but otherwise we've got January, March, April, May, and August.
However, this is not a statistically significant sample. Note, though, there are no lows in November or December. We did have some re-tests when we had October lows, however.
These dates are all the lowest lows of the year. Just an exercize that seems to have proved nothing, I guess.
There is a pattern of 5-months difference in the first 4-dates, but those are all in a bear market.
I'm not sure we can compare the 1998 low and a 2002 low. However, it works out to June. That time period keeps coming up, doesn't it?
Maybe we don't have a lower low than the coming June/July low this year, and maybe that Sandspring pop into November works well after all. |
