Q1 Equip, Materials Stats Look Good, But is it Real Growth?
By Jeff Chappell, Electronic News -- 5/23/2002 2:43:00 PM
e-insite.net
So are all the positive order bookings numbers from equipment suppliers indicative of a true recovery, or merely a reflection of chip inventory corrections? Market data from equipment and materials suppliers shows some definite -- if small -- signs of industry growth.
Following an earnings season punctuated by increased bookings across the board, Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) released its global book-to-bill figures for the first quarter of the year. The group also compiles data on the North American book-to-bill figures, which it releases monthly.
Worldwide billings for the quarter were $4.1 billion, 1 percent below the fourth quarter’s billings. But orders (bookings) were up 35 percent quarter over quarter to $4.2 billion.
Despite the good order news, there is no clear indication just yet about the nature of this growth. The semiconductor manufacturing supply chain is grappling with this very question, SEMI analysts reported at the consortium’s quarterly statistics briefing today. Many suppliers are concerned the increased bookings rippling down the supply chain are merely reflecting inventory replacement. 'Do we know if demand is going beyond that? We don’t know yet,' said SEMI market analyst Craig Klootwyk.
Yet there is data out there that the economy, both domestically and globally, has begun to improve. The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) jumped 5.7 percent in the first quarter despite conflicting economic data. And while other countries GDP rates did not do as well, they showed respectable growth. 'The world economies, with the exception of Japan, are not in bad shape,' said Dan Tracy, senior market analyst. Most developed nations’ current year GDP forecasts -- except for Japan -- are positive, with the world GDP predicted to grow more than 3 percent.
But even Japan’s first quarter GDP this year reflected positive growth, the first quarterly growth in a year, Tracy added. Regardless of the nature of the activity, activity is definitely picking up in the chip industry. SEMI’s materials market statistics show that while there isn’t a lot of new fab activity just yet, wafer starts in existing fabs have picked up. |
