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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: steve susko who wrote (52044)5/24/2002 3:35:29 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) of 65232
 
I interpret low volume as dire signal (lost confidence)
this is a dicey market now
the standard Lead Econ Indicators are positive now
money supply flow is positive
inventories are drawn down, in need of replenishment
consumer confidence is high (why? I will never understand)

the Cisco rally failed two weeks ago
the followup rally last week has now failed
low volume might have killed them both
big players will NOT follow thru if volume doesnt trail their commitments
I heartily EMPHATICALLY disagree that low volume is "no big deal"

if Wall Street cannot engineer higher volume, then a sharp summer doldrums will lead to late summer bigtime selloff
this is the "Hard Down" second presidential year for stocks
other cycles are also laying out a "Hard Down" autumn

after Memorial Day, typically a couple decent stock weeks
then considerable tech stock selling
summer is the low season for techs, always has been

low volume during the traditional spring rally spells DOOM
plain simple, pack your bags, aint gonna happen
I believe dollar selling will climax this year in August
that is an extremely precarious dangerous month
that is the month that Thailand was struck in 1997
that is the month that Russia defaulted in 1998
it is a dangerous currency month
that is my opinion and I am sticking with it
/ jim
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