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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 215.11

+0.1%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (80646)	5/25/2002 1:22:29 AM
From: burn2learn	Read Replies (5) of 275872

Jim, Here is my honest take ...... this listen closely and most important realize the corporate patterns follow individual human instinct. . P858 was not the excellence of execution. Intel saw this and said not again (classic knee jerk reaction). P860 had the resources and might to correct the P858 demons. Guess what P860 is a success and is doing great in my opinion...my opinion is biased and also should be taken as an expert on this subject. This cost a huge amount of money as many engineers left their families and went to Mecca to learn P860. I think P12X is on the same path as P86X. Consider human instinct and history, what comes next. I predict a repeat of P858 on the P12/8x derivatives. I have lived this cycle many times in a previous job and will be surprised if it does not repeat. I don't know of failures but think it will happen due to the "comfort zone" people fall in. Engineers don't go from design to process or whatever frequently. The resources for design are separate from process and thus not a large load when you look at K8 as a total concept drain. What is a load is what I have already documented on this thread and won't do again. Process engineer even if not in design roles are already swamped in normal daily activities and new product introductions. A new product is not a given on the same process there are new issues with each one...each issue you have or are trying to prevent prior to new product is a drain. PE resources are drained in today’s environment. Process is not plug and play for new products. One more thing1 If .013 is hard for AMD I think it’s representative of two items. 1. the quality of the process development team 2. the time they have to develop the process. I don’t think AMD has a bad development team but given the moving target and time to develop are not able to give the high volume fab the quality of product they would have liked if given ample time. The Mhz push has a dramatic impact on the timeline of the several process tweeks you can do to increase performance. As you push the window your time decreases and thus how much you know about the process suffers. This introduces windows of opportunity for new issues that consume PE resources to solve.

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