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Gold/Mining/Energy : SOUTHERNERA (t.SUF)

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To: Letmebe Frank who wrote (6887)5/25/2002 1:12:20 PM
From: ralfph  Read Replies (2) of 7235
 
Hey there LMBF.

I am crunching the numbers of SUF and TEK.B . I have followed and played TEK for years but bailed on bad news looking for a 3 day downturn instead the sucker went up almost 50 % in the following months. The only way TEK should have risen is because of what investors would see as future growth. I am bucking the market and saying that TEK.s price is out of line considering what I see as future growth for the next few quarters. In short it is not a buy until it drops under 9 bucks or the fundamentals change.
But if you only bought on TA . TEk could make a pretty good trader.The day I bailed the TA was screaming "Its a buy"
So much for DD.
Now SUF. I have only been on board since 3.10 or so. I sold once looking for a pullback and ended up buying back at a higher price (4.00 ? ) because TA said to do so...and even then I held my nose and said "Think long term".

My biggest problem right now is coming up with a future cash flow projection. Until I can come to terms with that. there is little value in doing a comparison.

I am long SUF Iam not in TEK. At present SUF strikes me as the better deal.
My seat of the pants TA says SUF should have pulled back more around 5 bucks, it crossed through other percieved pullback levels as well. If I had more I would have sold at 7.56 on friday looking for a pullback. But TA has not worked with SUF in the last 2 weeks.

Sitting back and letting it ride seems the best choice. SUF still looks like a buyout candidate. As long as we do not get blindsided by something the price rise could go double digits before settling down.

Disclaimer
I have a very small position, I was dropped on my head when little, I know nothing , this is all my opinion... yada yada yada.

regards
ralfph
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