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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 267.87

-0.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (64034)	5/25/2002 2:07:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Hi G, Man I hate being the defender of bearish views.First understand that I believe the long term rise is intact.Second I do believe we will hear so much crap about the recovery being in doubt - even though all high frequency economic data will be very positive. This will be a period of misinformation by design. stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyiay[df][pb30!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ul14!Li14,3]&pref=G Take a look at fast stochastics - the last spike up was pretty anemic.I'm thinking we need to get oversold (below 20) before we can get something powerful enough to create new highs. We've got about 40 days of prewarnings to waddle thru then actual earnings which will benefit from increased backlogs- will reflect growth.Additionally an expanding backlog will add legs to the recovery and a general positive optimism regarding the recovery. You are right that the BB don't expand - given the severity of a shakeout the price goes outside the BB - as in Sept. I don't expect it to be that severe- but I would like to see the lower BB get touched by price.That would be 19ish.That would be a perfect psychological level to pierce for three days and smart money could accumulate excellent positions just before the rise - fueled by good actual earnings. In short a double bottom where fast stochastics retouches the 20 line (I'm not expecting the wild low of Sept 21st ) - we were actually already there last August of 01 - a retest should not get to where we were in Sept just approach it - and test it and bounce up. +DI and -DI are awfully close to each other a nice 30 -60 day crossover would clean up the end of a weak period. We are already in a weak period as Chaikin Money Flow suggests:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AMAT,uu[w,a]waclyiay[df][pb30!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Uc20!Li14,3]&pref=G Just a friendly dip below 20 and we're off - hey a guys got to have a dream.gg Bob

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