I think that the turnips always have an optimistic bearing, namely, the level of tops forecasted are often too high (except the November top which was too low), and bottoms, not low enough. During last summer, I expected the drop to be stopped around 1600, we went much lower. Last spring, the forecast was for a double bottom ending around March 12th or so, and it took until March 22 for the dow and April 3 for the naz to bottom. The year before, I had the first leg ending May 18th, but it too another week or so before we hit bottom. These are the "forecasts, but the real bottom (fully loaded calls) , where not too bad. In #reply-16967797, I tried to summarize the successes and failures of the turnips in the last 18 months or so. Judge for yourself their "failings". I think that their most useful service (for longs, not for dark siders) is keeping me out of the market during major declines, after all, their job is capital preservation, not optimization of returns.
Zeev |
