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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: maceng2 who wrote (168233)	5/26/2002 8:33:20 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) of 436258

LRCX Bulls to Pearly... U R WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! messages.yahoo.com New Hi tech 300mm (assuming 256M DRAM dice) only 64 sq mm in area silly! hi tech profitability musings. ---------------------------------------------------------- OK so thats 150150pi = 1104 die per wafer 90.5% yield gives us a nice 1000 dpw at 300mm. If we go here we see the packaged cost of these dice today ebnonline.com 256M = $6 to $8 and lower tech memory trash $2 to $3. At 300mm it means approx $8000 in revenue is generated per wafer. This has to include, testing packaging and shipping to. Approx manufactured wafer cost... 100mm $100 150mm $1000 200mm $2000 300mm $4000 (my projection) These numbers are very approximate, vary by technology, and also manufacturing expertise. As time goes on and process tuning takes place the cost per wafer usually get pushed downward and downward. You can put +/- 50% easily to those numbers. Fact is..profit margin will be highly squeezed taking into account testing packaging etc. Packaging is ultra hi tech these days too. lo tech profitability musings --------------------------------------------------------- Ok lets look at some lower tech analog stuff from a co like Texas Instrument. I choose them as I have not worked for those guys. The "mash the button and buy" price can be found on any product. Taking one product range at random, lets say the sub "processor supervisor" range in the "power management" catagory and looking at pricing you can see who really is da boss. focus.ti.com OK, probably only made on 200mm wafers or (god forbid!) 150mm wafers but the dies sized are small. Just a few square mm in most cases. Redesign and process shrinks are occuring on these product lines too. So for each smancy fancy hi tech chip you can probably use 5 to 10 low tech chips just to make sure it's looked after and connected but protected from the nasty high voltage spikey outside world. ------------------------------------------------------------ A nice link on this type of information. Oh wow just found this page on wafer costs... icknowledge.com icknowledge.com EXTREMELY IMPORTANT POINT: Note the main assumption... "300mm wafer costs assume a 30,000 wafer per month Fab running at 90% of capacity.*" In fact if you half the run rate you can almost double the wafer cost. Fixed costs on new plant will be a high percentage of overall wafer cost. that other link on total chip manufacturing out put... icknowledge.com snippet "This simple analysis points out that 2002 is currently a weak spot with over capacity threatening to derail any fledging recovery. 2003 could actually see a capacity shortage based on current investment levels. unsippet. Yep...looks like it to me too. Not sure about that 2003 comment. Lets see what gets shut down and possible shortfalls. Get your clown bucks salted away ready for "semi spin roulette" in 2003. Instead of "Black" and "Red" you can play "Hi tech" or "Lo tech" or even go for the "zero" spot "system on a chip". Do mistakes or screwups ever happen in semiconductor land ...Nah -g- My conclusion? I'm putting more money on PAAS and CDE probably. especially when I read this type of stuff... ebnews.com

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