| Larry, this approach only takes into account "price action", price action is important to determine trends (whether we are still in a going trend and the direction of that trend), reversals etc, but without sentiment parameters (P/C, dV/dt (V=vix, or vxn) volume, new highs/new lows, tic, trin, extreme in various DMA, etc.), economic parameters, liquidity and even anticipation of news (such as BTB, leaders' CC etc.), price action is only good to maintain positions in long trends, since Feb. 22, we got some good topping indicators, but all the local mini-bottoms (2/22, 3/26, 4/10 and 5/7) where all lacking good sentiments numbers. It should not be a surprise that both Hal and the turnips got whipsawed a number of times during that period. Right now, the sentiment indicators are not conducive to a major rally starting (though, Hal is still in an uptrend), thus I am sticking with the nassacre scenario. |
