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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (12427)5/28/2002 2:17:18 AM
From: High Country Trader  Read Replies (4) of 19219
 
J.T., I believe the net balance index hit a record back in 1974 when during a 47 week period (February - December) there was net buying in 44 weeks. The net buying that occurred in late 1995 (not 1994) was the next great buying splurge by the members. In late 1994 it was the consecutive weeks of public shorting over specialists that was the trigger. Back in late 1994 though most all the sentiment indicators (such as Investors Intelligence) were confirming the positive data from the members report. Also, since 2000, the net balance index has been mostly positive week after week. Two weeks ago I posted in another newsgroup that the net balance index was positive 37 of 52 weeks in 2000 with an average net weekly buy of 13,773.807. Last year it was positive 23 of the 30 weeks with a net weekly buy of 29,085,366 before the humongous net selling began in August.
This year it had been positive 13 of 17 weeks ( I guess it's now 15/19 weeks) with a net weekly buy of 37,868,705 shares. More significant for the bulls is every week this year has seen more public selling than specialist. I agree with you the ingredients are there for a major blastoff. But not sure that blastoff will occur before there is more bearish sentiment coming from Investors Intelligence, more insider buying (which I'm told hit its lowest reading in 10 years on an eight week moving average) and the commercials net long the S&P futures. Regardless, if a blastoff occurs I would think it should be accompanied by either a momentum day of extraordinary up/down volume on the NYSE or Nasdaq or 10 days where the cumulative advance/decline ratio is greater than 2 to 1.
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