Hi all; Britain mulls cutting off arms supplies to India:
Arms embargo may turn India to others
Mahendra Ved, Times Of India, May 28, 2002
Any British move to impose an arms embargo or delay the signing of the deal for Hawk advanced jet trainers (AJTs) could prompt India to look for other options, reliable sources in the government indicated on Monday.
The Hawk deal, for the supply of 66 AJTs at an estimated cost of one billion pounds sterling, is in the conclusive stage after years of discussions and delays. It could be signed ‘‘very shortly’’, the sources said.
The British media has carried comments by Robin Cook, leader of the House of Commons, that the Blair government was poised to block the sale to India of the AJTs and that in the ‘‘very grave and very worrying circumstances’’ (in South Asia), an embargo ‘‘would make sense’’.
However, The Guardian said on Monday department of trade and industry officials were ‘‘distancing themselves’’ from Cook’s remarks and said that there were ‘‘no current plans for an arms embargo’’.
An official source here, not speaking on record, pointed out that India would be “free to look around” and that “arms bazaar is no longer a seller’s market”. India’s future purchases with the British and the long term defence cooperation could also be affected.
Defence circles here are surprised at the British stand at a time when even the United States has decided to lift sanctions on defence supplies and dual purpose technology. Cook’s reported remarks do not appear to be in tune with the current geostrategic realities, they said.
The British did not impose sanctions like the US and some others after the 1998 nuclear tests by India but dilly-dallied on the supply of spares for the Sea King helicopters and their repairs. An embargo now would be setting an extraordinary precedent.
With the Jaguar deal, signed in 1979, India had the last word. The contract stated that the supplier could not disrupt the deal under any circumstances. The Russian and the French offers for the AJTs carry explicit assurances that there would be no embargo irrespective of the political conditions in the region of the buyer, defence officials say.
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
I predict that if it comes down to a real shooting war, the US will support Pakistan. This prediction is based on the importance of Pakistan in the war against terrorism (i.e. terrorism against the US). I realize that my prediction is in contradiction to civilian US feelings on the subject, which are running against support for Moslem states such as Pakistan, but the facts on the ground are that Pakistan (a longtime ally of the US) is providing the US military with military bases while India (a long time ally of Russia) isn't.
But I don't think that there is going to be any major war there. It's sometimes said that WW1 was inevitable when the participants called up their reserves, militia, etc., and sent them to the borders. This may or may not be so, but I don't see significant signs that India is ready to begin a war. All they're doing is shooting artillery at each other in a relatively unpopulated area. A real war would involve the Indians trying to take Islamabad.
One of the Indian politicians was talking about a 2 week war. This is the kind of near bloodless scrap that only the 3rd world can get away with. Real wars can take close to a decade and kill millions. Reading him talk about such an easy victory is not a good sign for peace.
Here's a link for a reporter who got tours from boths sides. If you're interested in what fighting at 20,000 feet is like, read it. I'll only quote one sentence, the single sentence which fully explains why these countries are fighting over a glacier:
"As they climb higher, mental capacity is reduced to a quarter."
asiaweek.com
Ah what the heck, how can I resist further quotes?
The Pack-Howitzer is the main weapon, but its portable design makes it less accurate and dependent on observers to call in firing instructions. These men are hidden in the Death Zone - vantage points in excess of 7,300 meters where the steady physical deterioration that begins at about 5,000 meters is accelerated and survival is measured in days. The observer who has climbed an ice spire or been lowered by helicopter must phone back firing instructions with most of his brain not functioning.
-- Carl |
