Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (71866)	5/28/2002 4:09:15 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Market Sentiment: I've been following sentiment indicators for a long time and have studied the AAII indicator in depth. It's quite useful, but can be very volatile week to week; that's why I use it in conjunction with two other surveys, the Consensus Inc and Market Vane surveys. For the most recent week, the average Bullish figure of the three is 26.7%, just 1% above where it was at the September 21st low. Outflows last week from Stock Funds, per AMG Data present a similar picture. Although my leading indicators call(ed) for a high somewhere in the 2nd half of May, the Market so far hasn't gotten nearly as high as it should have, and my contrarian indicators do not show the bullishness they should be showing. Conclusion: the rash of warnings that more terrorist attacks are inevitable, coupled with the scary covers of Time and Newsweek, etc, have depressed the Market even though they're not explicitly related to the economy or the Market. If there's a let-up in the fear monging, we could get a strong short term rally in the next week or two.

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