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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Bilow who wrote (30947)5/28/2002 4:36:04 AM
From: frankw1900  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
I predict that if it comes down to a real shooting war, the US will support Pakistan. This prediction is based
on the importance of Pakistan in the war against terrorism (i.e. terrorism against the US).

The importance of Pakistan to the US in fighting terrorism is superficially evident. Right now, it is providing bases to the US and extremely dubious intelligence. There is also a large element of the Pakistani armed forces and security services which are actively opposing the US anti-terrorism efforts.

US obtained the grudging support it gets fom Pakistan via direct threats after 9/!!.

Pakistan's importance to the US is ambiguous.

Also, it's not at all clear to me that even if Pakistan and India go to war that US has to support either.

Right now, a case can be made that the US is supporting India by sales of sophisticated arms it refuses to sell to Pakistan. (It's India that is getting the AWACS and the artillery ranging radar, not Pakistan).

Given Pakistan's sponsorship of terrorist activity in Kashmir and the overlap of that activity with al Qaeda activities it may also be argued that a Pakistan defeat by India is in US interests as even more terrorists will be killed and the war would drain anti-US Pakistan operatives from Afghanistan to Indian border.

There is a pragmatic aspect as well. It's almost a certainty the Indians would defeat Pakistan - why line up with the losing side, especially since the winner is likely to become a welter weight super power someday?

As US relations with Russia and it's former asian satellites become warmer, Pakistan bases become less important - this not a great argument, given Pakistan bases are more convenient, but nonetheless the US does have more options than it had in September.

These days India has more in common with both Russia and the US than Pakistan has with either.

Perhaps a very satisfactory outcome for Mushareff, India, and the US, of a limited Pak/India war would be the deaths of a very large number of terrorists....
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