Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (3316)	5/28/2002 11:13:29 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95572

Hi RtS, Went back to study previous dip lows on Cohu during dip after semi bookings went up for 5 months after cycle troughs - 97 and 99. VIX was not an indicator that triggered a buy signal.The overall market was being subtly accumulated and that widespread level of fear was not there. If we get a vix spike it will be a gift and may well signal - it's different this time. The dips of 3/24/99 and 4/4/97 were similar in many ways but subtly different in terms of degree. So this dip is the same phenomenom but the degree to which it gives us a nice juicey entry point is yet to be seen. The 99 dip went nicely below the 200 ma for three days. The 97 dip came within .90 of the 200 ma. In both cases the 10 day ma reversing up gave a fairly good buy point and as of today the 10 day is declining still - so time to keep the powder dry. I'll get into much bigger detail on Cohu thread. New low territory for Cohu this A.M. @ 23.75 P.S. 200 day MA is 21.65 if we use 97 as a rule 22.55 would be as close as it gets to 200 ma - on the other hand 99 would say 21.60 is doable. Must see stochastics get more oversold and then set up more divergences that show buying coming in.We still have to go thru more oversold and then also 10 is going down still. Bob

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